Feb. 5, 2007 - Thoughts from Super Tuesday evening from the studios of WGST, plus audio content from the first person to call Georgia for Huckabee

Tim Darnell

December 31, 1969

6:46 pm – I love being on the radio. While I have the world's worst broadcasting voice, I have the perfect face for the medium. This is the third time I've been in the studios of WGST for election night coverage, presumably because the consummate WGST news professionals (yes, I'm sucking up) can look (or, in my case, hear) beyond the voice and actually think I might have some sort of insight into the world of politics, an environment in which I feel quite at home.

Keys to victory –

Obama must do well among Georgia's black voters. He does well among independents who vote in open primaries, such as ours.

Hillary will do well among women, as she has all over the nation. Georgia's Latino vote will have to turn out for her as well.

McCain – Our U.S. senators, Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss, have endorsed their colleague, and both are among the nation's most conservative senators. Will they help McCain carry Georgia the same way that Fla. Gov. Charlie Crist helped the Arizona Republican carry the Sunshine State?

Romney – He's got the strongest Georgia organization, with a lot of high-dollar, high-powered former Bush people in his camp. Will he do well among evangelicals, or will ...

Huckabee – He's been surging over the last 24 hours in Georgia, and we could have a strong evangelical turnout. He has a social conservative, populist appeal. How will that play here?

My wild card – illegal immigration. McCain's much publicized immigration stand has perhaps been the most divisive wedge between him and the hard right base. Georgia has a huge Latino workforce, many of whom can't vote, but there are very, very strong opinions on this issue here. How will this affect his showing?

7:00 – Obama is projected by both CNN and Fox to win Georgia. Not a big surprise. I expect Obama to carry any state with a large African-American voters in an open primary. Double trouble for Clinton on this front. This could also be a repudiation of the state's traditional civil rights leadership, many of whom endorsed Clinton.

  Click here for WGST's 7 pm primary update.

7:09 – This is one of the largest turnouts for a primary in recent memory. Wonderful news for what is a wide open race.

7:14 – Obama supporters are touting his support among white voters, 39 percent as of now, in Georgia. The Peach State is a big prize. Is this a harbinger of the evening?

7:27 – Turnaround is the watchword of the evening on both the Democratic and Republican side, with Obama taking the first major victory of the night, McCain's resurgence from a year or so ago, Huckabee and Romney still alive. If McCain can't carry California, after such a strong showing over the past week in Florida, and then winning endorsements from Guiliani and Schwarzenegger, it has to be a serious blow.

7:38 – Not every state is winner-take-all. Romney just has to do well enough in California to win some delegates.

7:58 – Back and forth between McCain, Romney and Huckabee, as percent after percent comes in. This could go on all night.

Click here for WGST's 8 pm primary update .

8:01 – McCain wins Illinois, Romney wins Massachusetts, despite McCain making a last-minute campaign appearance there. Huckabee wins Alabama. The former Arkansas governor has made a late, very strong surge in the South.

8:02 – McCain wins New Jersey.

8:06 – McCain is winning the big states. So is Obama. A slight coming-out party.

8:16 – Places where Hillary should be doing well – Connecticut, other states around her home state of New York – are not being called. The Obama surge ... The once-front-runners may not be so far ahead after all.

8:20 – Hillary wins Tennessee. This is interesting, as the Volunteer State has a sizable African-American vote. I'm somewhat surprised at this.

8:21 – 11 states down ...

8:22 – Alabama reporters say there was a strong feeling that McCain would carry Alabama, but it goes for Huckabee. Discontent from the state's strident Christian voters? And what about Alabama's strong military constituency?

8:30 – Hillary and Huckabee win Arkansas. Disaster if they hadn't.

8:39 – McCain wins Delaware. Who cares?

8:55 – Romney has won nothing significant so far. He's showing vulnerability here in Georgia, a shock considering he has invested so much time and money and energy and organization in the Peach State. He has a lot of top-notch former Bush operators here, who have been raising a lot of money for him. Why isn't he stronger here?

9:00 – Hillary wins New York. See 8:30.

Click here for WGST's 9 pm primary update.

9:21 – McCain wins New York. Big win here.

9:22 – Romney is showing strength in metro Atlanta counties, but this isn't Herman Talmadge's Georgia anymore, where Atlanta dictates how the rest of the election goes.

9:24 – Our last local update is at 10 pm. If no one else has called the GOP race in Georgia, I'm going to take the plunge.

9:33 – 53 percent of Georgia, says CNN, with Huckabee four points ahead of McCain.

9:42 – I'm going to call the race for Huckabee. He won't win the GOP nomination, but this puts him in a perfect position to make a case for the running mate's slot. Romney's only chance to stay relevant in this race is to make a strong showing in California. As one GOP analyst on Fox radio said, conservative commentators such as Limbaugh, Coulter, Ingraham and Hannity don't choose the GOP nominee, any more than Ted Kennedy does for the Democrats.

9:44 – My gut hurts with worry when making this call. Either I'm going to look really smart or really foolish. But I really think McCain has received all of the votes he's going to receive in the Peach State. Someone has to call it, so it might as well be me.

9:46 – Huckabee will become a powerbroker for the South. No one wins the White House – I don't care what people say – without winning the South, and Huckabee has been making nice regarding McCain over the past week. Whoever the GOP nominee is – and it won't be Huckabee, because there's no way he can win the delegates – he will need some sort of Southern link.

9:49 – There is no way either Hillary or Obama can carry the South, no matter who they choose as a running mate. That's why the next president of the United States will be a Republican.

9:51 – It's going to be a razor thin margin of victory in Georgia, no matter who wins. So I guess I won't feel too bad if I'm wrong.

10:00 – I make my call - Huckabee will win Georgia. Click here for WGST's 10 pm primary update.