Richard Bowers & Co: Q4 2007 Atlanta office market report

January 17, 2008

Q4 2007 summary – From Richard Bowers
The fourth quarter of 2007 continued favorably for the Atlanta office market, posting positive absorption of 75,300 square feet. Urban submarkets absorbed 105,873 square feet, while the suburbs had negative absorption of 30,573 square feet, primarily as a result of negative absorption in two submarkets: 228,262 square feet in the I-285/GA-400 submarket and 106,797 square feet in the I-75/I-285 submarket.  Average rental rates across all Atlanta submarkets increased modestly from $21.09 in the third quarter of 2007 to $21.15 in the fourth quarter.
 
With 256,805 square feet of deliveries, all of which occurred in the suburbs, average vacancy rates increased slightly from 15.23 percent in Q3 2007 to 15.33 percent in the fourth quarter. 
 
2007 year-end summary – From Richard Bowers
Despite economic concerns about sub-prime lending, oil and gas price increases, and the devaluation of the dollar, calendar year 2007 experienced 3,164,363 square feet of positive absorption-the highest since calendar year 2000 by well over one million square feet.  Over the last year, vacancy rates have decreased from 16.43 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 15.33 percent for the fourth quarter of 2007.  Rental rates have moved upward significantly from $20.56 per square foot for the fourth quarter of 2006 to $21.15 per square foot for the fourth quarter of 2007.  Although the urban corridor outperformed the suburbs in the fourth quarter of 2007, for all of 2007 the suburbs outperformed the urban corridor with 1,900,875 square feet of absorption compared to the urban corridor's 1,263,488 square feet. 
 
The urban corridor, due to significantly greater square footage deliveries for 2007, has a slightly higher vacancy rate at year-end 2007 of 15.66 percent as compared to the fourth quarter of 2006 at 15.52 percent. The suburbs' vacancy rate, however, decreased from 16.88 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 15.18 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.  The urban corridor has significantly higher average quoted rental rates-currently at $23.65 per square foot versus $19.88 in the suburbs.
 
2008 Outlook – From Richard Bowers
With the current questionable economic outlook for 2008 and concerns in residential and sub-prime lending, U.S. manufacturing, gasoline prices, and inflation, Richard Bowers & Co. is not as bullish on 2008 despite favorable 2007 absorption results. 
 
Nevertheless, as the fastest-growing city in the country and the number one location under consideration for young college professionals, we fully expect the Atlanta office market to have positive absorption in 2008 unless there is a severe economic downturn.   The office market will remain relatively stable with only 743,062 square feet of deliveries in 2008-484,000 square feet along the urban corridor, and 259,062 square feet in the suburbs.  The major development scheduled for delivery in 2008 is Buckhead's 3344 Peachtree Road at 484,000 square feet.   
 
Occupancy rates will in all likelihood increase by a small percentage with the limited number of deliveries projected for 2008.  Rental rates, which have been relatively stable in comparison to other U.S. markets, are also expected to move upwards, possibly by as much as $1.00 per square foot, particularly with increased operating expenses and taxes, and new buildings brought on stream at more expensive full service rental rates.
 
About Richard Bowers & Co:
Founded in 1980, Richard Bowers & Co. is Atlanta's premier local commercial real estate firm. The firm engages in leasing and sales of office, industrial, retail, land and investment properties. Online at www.richardbowers.com.